Forecast: How will U.S. Federal budget balance impact EUR/USD?

NEW YORK (Forex News Now) – The U.S. Treasury Department is due on Friday to its monthly statement for September, in one of the day’s major realtime forex news events.

The Treasury is expected to say in the statement, which is also known as the “Federal Budget Balance,” that its budget deficit shrank from USD 90.5 billion in August to 32.3 billion in September, two major online FX trading news outlets reported.

The department is scheduled to release the report at 6:00 P.M., GMT; as such, the data is likely to dominate late European currency market trading.

However, the report will also precede data on the global currency market, also released by the Treasury, which may overshadow the budget balance – especially in light of recent talk of a “currency war.”

In any event, a greater-than-expected reduction in the budget deficit could push EUR/USD toward short-term support around Thursday’s low, 1.1.3955, according to EUR USD analysis.

But should the data show a slighter-than-forecast decline in the deficit, or even a widening of it, the currency pair could be pushed toward short-term resistance around Friday’s 8-month high, 1.4158.