US Durable Goods Expected to Stabilize, New Home Sales Predicted to Increase

The economic events calendar is extremely busy today as US markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Thanksgiving and on Friday many American stay home for the renowned Black Friday spending spree.

In the US, the durables, weekly claims, new home sales, final figure of Michigan consumer confidence and personal income and spending data are scheduled for release.

In the euro zone, the IFO business climate indicator and industrial new orders are on the agenda. Germany and the US will top the market and the ECB announces the allotment of its 3-month tender.

In October, US durable goods orders are expected to stabilize after a sharp increase in September, which was entirely based in the transportation component. Boeing orders remained strong in October, but slightly weaker than last month’s figure, which will lead to a (relatively small) negative contribution. Excluding transportation, durables are forecasted to show a moderate increase.

New home sales are expected to show a slight increase in October (by 1.6% M/M to 312), the third consecutive rise. We have no reason to distance ourselves from the consensus, although volatility in the percentage figures might be high as new home sales are still near record lows.

US weekly claims are expected to drift slightly lower (-4 000), confirming the recent downward trend, while the final figure of University of Michigan consumer confidence is forecasted to show a marginal upward revision (from 69.3 to 69.5).

In the euro zone, industrial new orders are expected to show a 2.5% M/M decline in September, after an impressive 5.3% M/M increase in August. The German IFO indicator is forecasted to show a marginal decline (from 107.6 to 107.5) in November due to deterioration in the expectations component. After the surprisingly strong PMI’s yesterday, we believe that an upward surprise, driven by a weaker euro and thus stronger exports is not excluded, although the index is close to record high levels.

Content provided by: KBC Bank